Net profit by variant — backtests
Each bar is one backtest run, net profit in USD on a $10,000 tester deposit (0.01 lots). Green = profitable, red = losing. The v5 D1 bar is the only large green one — and it did not repeat in August.
All results — table
| # | Strategy / EA | Pair | Test type | Window | Trades | Net ($) | Profit factor | Win rate | Max DD ($) | Note |
|---|
Modelling quality 24.93–24.96% on M1-based runs (every tick on M1 history); v2-M5 run 88.79% but with a 69-mismatched-chart-errors data warning. Tester deposit actually used $10,000 in every run (the ini asked $1,000; the tester ignored it). Spread 17 in tester reports.
Suggestions — what the numbers say, and what to try next
- Do not trust v5 D1 on Sep–Nov alone. It made +$114.99 in-sample but −$60.10 in August, and its in-sample profit was concentrated in its top 3 wins (58% of gross profit). The forward test now running is the real validation.
- The stop is the thread through every losing variant. Sweep-extreme stops average ~74–85 pips while most targets fall back to the fixed 30 pips. The FVG far-side stop (mean 47 pips) did not fix it — it let 336 trades through and lost −$224.61. Any next variant should attack stop vs target together, not one alone.
- Stricter is not always better. D1 + close-hold FVG respect cut trades 49 → 21 and win rate 49% → 33%; it stayed profitable (+$32.45) only because the survivors were long runners.
- Watch the forward test, don't force it. D1 took ~2 weeks to fire its first trade in both backtest windows. No trade in the first days is normal — do not loosen settings to force one.
- Next levers, in order: (1) let the forward test run at least 4 weeks; (2) a clean stop-isolation test on the same 49 D1 setups; (3) a second out-of-sample window (e.g. Jul 2026) if the forward test shows anything.
Forward test — live status
v5 D1 forward test — Setting up. EA attached to a live XAUUSD M5 chart on the Muse1828 PC, Pepperstone demo account 85377978, 0.01 lots, D1 settings exactly as backtested, forward news file 9 Nov-9 Dec 2026. Starting balance and first trades will appear here once the setup is confirmed and trades occur. This section updates daily at ~09:00 SGT.